Climate Change and its Impact on Food Security

 

Dr. Asim Hasan¹, Dr. Zainab Hussain²

¹Assistant Professor (Guest Faculty) at Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow

²Assistant Professor at SSLD Varshney College, Aligarh

 

ABSTRACT:

The global climate has been regularly changing for the many decades and most of these changes, unfortunately, are not even worthy at all. The rising temperature of earth surface, rising sea level due to melting of glacier, fluctuation in rainfall, flooding, declining ground water, drought, soil erosion, etc. are the clear evidences of climate change. Natural and human activities both are responsible for climate change. The association between climate change and food security is complex. Estimation of the potential effects of climate change on food security requires a detailed understanding of the three aspects of food security – food availability, food access, and food utilization – and how they are affected by climate change. Most of the earlier studies focus only one aspect of food security i.e. food availability. This paper provides an overview of the impact of climate change on India's food security, keeping in mind all the three dimensions. The study reveals that climate change has decreased the yield and quality of most of food grain crop in different regions which ultimately affects food security in the country.

 

 

 

1. INTRODUCTION:

Climate change has led to increase in globally-averaged mean annual air temperature and disparities in regional precipitation and these changes are anticipated to continue and exaggerate in the future (Solomon et al., 2007). The global mean temperature has increased by 0.74ºC during the last 100 years (IPCC 2007A). In the recent last four decades, surface temperature has increased by 0.3°C or by 0.08°C per decade in India. This would increase the severity of inequalities in cereal yields between developing and developed countries (Fischer et al., 2005). Recently, the climate change has been escorted by increased occurrence of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, heat waves and cyclones (Goswami et al., 2006).

 

Such intense events can cause an extreme deterioration in the agricultural production and productivity, worsening the problem of food insecurity. It is anticipated that in South Asia climate change may increase the number of food insecure children to 50 million by 2050 (Greg et al., 2011). (Masters et al., 2010) also stated that food insecurity will become worse in the presence of climate change, threatening many millions of people (Parry et al., 2004). It is projected that agriculture production and productivity in lower developing countries may decline by 20% and 15% respectively under climate change on an average (Masters et al., 2010).

 

Climate change is not a new phenomenon in the world. It is a serious concern for both developed and developing countries.  In mid, high latitude and higher income countries climate change has positive impact on agricultural production and crop yield. While in lower-latitude and lower income countries the impact is negative. Developing countries are most vulnerable compared to developed countries. There are several causes which increase the vulnerabilities for developing countries like low level of technological advancement, insufficiency of resources, lack of information to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change on agriculture; and due to their greater dependence on agriculture for livelihood of huge populations (Nath and Behera, 2011). A few eastern states of India have estimated a 24-58 per cent decline in household income and 12-33 per cent rise in farm-household poverty in a drought year (Bhandari et al, 2007). Small and marginal farmers are likely to be affected more by the climate change because of their poor access to agricultural inputs, information, technologies and finances for adaptation and mitigation. Landholdings measuring less than or equal to one hectare include approximately to two-third of the total holdings in India. The threats of climate change to sustainable agricultural development and food security in the country is so high that no other topic has attracted the attention of scientists and policymakers.

 

2. Global Scenario of Food Security:

Despite the improvements in food production one major question remains whether the world will achieve SDG 2, which aims to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture, by 2030. New indication shows a sign to rise in global hunger and reverse trends after a continued decline (FAO, 2018).

 

The number of undernourished in the world has been on an increasing trend since 2013 reached an estimated 821 million in 2017. The absolute number of undernourished people in the world is now estimated to have increased from around 804 million in 2016 to almost 821 million in 2017 which was 795 in the year 2015, means one out of every nine people in the world is hungry (Figure 1). The latest FAO estimates reveals that the share of undernourished people in the world population has been rising for two years in a row, and may have touched 10.9 percent in 2017 (FAO, 2018).

 

There is a need to speed up and strengthen the flexibility of adaptive capacity of food system, livelihood of people and nutrition in response to extreme climate change. The sign of increasing food insecurity and high prevalence of different types of malnutrition are the strong warning of the immediate need for action. There is a need of additional work to safeguard we “leave no one behind” on the way towards achieving the SDG goals on food security and nutrition by 2030 (FAO, 2018).

 

2.1 Prevalence of Hunger in India:

Hunger is a complex issue in India where more than half of the population is undernourished. It is extensive and the causes are different across different regions. According to latest FAO estimates in ‘The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2018” report, approximately 195.9 million peoples are undernourished in India. According to these estimations, India becomes the home to a quarter of the undernourished population in the world. Beside this around 51% of women between 15 to 49 years of age are suffering from anaemia and 21% of children under 5 are underweight. The children suffered from malnourishment have a higher risk of death from other childhood illnesses such as diarrhoea, pneumonia, and malaria. The Global Hunger Index 2018 ranks India at 103 out of 119 countries on the basis of three prime indicators- the proportion of undernourished in the population, prevalence of underweight children under 5 years and under 5 child mortality rate. Figure 2 shows the percentage change of undernourished people in India. Figure 3 shows the status of child malnutrition from NFHS 2, NFHS 3 and NFHS 3 surveys.

 

Figure 1: Trend of undernourished in the world (2005-2017)

Source: FAO, 2018

 

Figure 2: Undernourished People of India (in Percentage)

Source: FAO statistics, 2018

 

Figure 3: Status of Child Malnutrition

Source: NFHS

 

3. Overview of Global Climate Change:

Climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural inconsistency or as a result of human activity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded that the impact of anthropological activities on climate is unequivocal (IPCC 2007).  Climate is changing since ancient era. The global climate has been gradually changing for the many decades and most of these changes, unfortunately, are not even good at all. There has been a great deal of incontrovertible evidence of climate change that simply can't be ignored any longer. The rising temperature of earth surface, rising sea level due to melting of glacier, fluctuation in rainfall, flooding, declining ground water, drought, soil erosion, etc. are the clear evidences of climate change. Natural and human activities both are responsible for climate change. Natural activities include changes in volcanic activity, solar output, forest fires and the Earth's orbit around the Sun.

 

Human activities are also accountable for climate change and environmental destruction such as increasing rate of population, fast urbanization, use of new and modern technologies, higher economic growth and development, construction of buildings, deforestation, burning fossil fuels, transport, increasing development of land for farms, grazing cattle, etc. (Ahmad et al., 2011). These all activities release greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. According to scientific studies, increasing quantity of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere is main cause for climate variability. Thus human driven activities increase the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide N₂O), chloro fluorocarbons (CFCs) and other gases which has led to global climate change. The concentration of methane (CH₄) has increased in atmosphere more than two-and-half times from preindustrial levels due to human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere has increased by almost 45% since pre-industrial times, from approximately 280 parts per million by volume (ppm) in the 18th century to 406.42 ppm in 2017 (https://www.co2.earth/). At present human activities emit over 30 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every year. Nitrous oxide is another greenhouse gas produced mainly through agricultural activities, natural biological processes, fuel burning etc. It has risen around 21% since the start of the industrial revolution, with a relatively rapid increase towards the start of the 21th century (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html).

 

3.1 Climate Change Impacts in India:

In many parts of India, episodic droughts and cyclonic storms have become more frequent. Monsoon seasonal rainfall has decreased by 6% to 8% of the regular in eastern Madhya Pradesh, north-eastern India and several parts of Gujarat and Kerala over the past century (Lal et al., 2010). Storms have become more common in India, especially in West Bengal and Gujarat. They have increased at a rate of 0.01 events per year (Sehgal, 2009). In addition, sea level has risen between 1.06 to 1.75 mm per year (IPCC, 2007). Such varying climatic patterns will dominate India even towards the end of the 21st century. India will experience deep rainfall, leading to enormous soil erosion and landslides. ‘As the number of rainy days will reduce by 15 days, the intensity of rainfall will increase by one to four mm per day’ (Lal et al., 2010).  But it is seen that the intensity of rainfall will increase in rain abundant areas, leading to flooding and loss of fertile soil. Areas like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh are drought prone which will receive less rainfall, resulting in severe droughts (Lal et al., 2010). Furthermore, India’s rising surface temperatures over the years will rapidly meltdown the Himalayan glaciers. Studies show that the temperature is increasing at a rate of 0.21^oC per 100 years and ground level waters are falling by one to three meters per year (Sehgal, 2009).

 

4. Food Security and Dimension:

Even though previous studies counted at least 30 definitions of the term “food security” (Maxwell and Smith 1992), the benchmark understanding of the term is generally that of FAO (FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2001): “Food security is a situation that exists when all people at all times have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. This definition is then typically sub divided food security into three main components: food availability, food access, and food utilization. Availability aspects related to the physical presence of food; accessibility related to having the means or resources to acquire food through production or purchase or through import; and utilization refers to the suitable nutritional content of the food and the ability of the body to utilize it effectively.

 

5. Linkage between Climate Change and Food Security:

Food security is directly linked to climate change because any irregularity in climatic factor can directly impact a country’s ability to feed its people (Ahmad et al., 2011). It disturbs all the dimensions of food security (FAO, 2008). Availability of food is directly get affect by climate change through its impact on agricultural production. It negatively influences the crop productivity, soil fertility and crop nests and diseases (Greg et al., 2011). It also gets affected by climate change indirectly via its impact on economic growth, income distribution and agricultural demand (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). Stability of food, crop productivity, and food supplied is adversely affected due to any irregularity in climatic variables (Greg et al., 2011). It may also adversely affect the economic ability of population to access the food due to any increase in food prices (Greg et al., 2011). Absorption of food also may be negatively affected by climate variation, it decreases real nutrition contents of food; and it may increase the numerous health issues (Greg et al., 2011). Comprehensively impact of climate change may decrease the agricultural production and productivity as well as employment opportunities of population resulting it would be serious threat for hunger, food insecurity, poverty and malnutrition in any region.

 

India has many reasons to be worried about climate change, because a majority of the population depend on climate sensitive sector i.e. agriculture, forestry and fishing for livelihood. If not addressed in time, the existing problem of food security in our country will become more sensitive due to change in the climate. For a country like India, it will become more difficult to ensure food security under the changing climate where more than one third of the population is estimated to be extremely poor and one half of all children are malnourished in one way or another (Dev and Sharma, 2010). To study the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture sector is quite complex as many factors are concerned in this phenomena. For the detail discussion about impact of climate change on food security we considered three components of food security and discuss its impact on these components in the Indian scenario.

 

5.1 Climate Change and Availability of Food:

The food availability component of food security covers issues of global and regional food supply. Availability of food directly gets affected due to any fluctuation in agricultural production and productivity. Changes in temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather could have significant impacts on crop productivity. (Oluoko-Odingo, 2009) witnessed that a rise in temperature will lead to either flood or drought which is a reason for the severe shortage of food availability. In mid, high latitude and higher income countries climate change has positive impact on agricultural production and crop yield While in lower-latitude and lower income countries experience a negative effect on agricultural production. About 65% of India’s total agricultural area is rain-fed and more than 80% Indian farmers are small and marginal thus having insufficient capacity to cope with climate change impacts (Ranuzzi and Srivastava, 2012). Another problem is about 52% populations (around 700 million) depend on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, forestry and fishery for their livelihood (Sathaye et al., 2006).

 

It is projected that the entire agricultural productivity of the world will decline between 3 and 16 percent by 2080 and in individual developing countries even larger decline. For example a drop of 30 to 40 percent could be seen in case of India (Mahato. A, 2014). In India, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may decrease up to 6.2% and agricultural production may decrease up to 24% by 2080 due to climate change (Zhai and Zhuang, 2009; and Zhai et al., 2009). It is projected that rice and wheat yield will drop by 32%-40% and 41%-52% respectively under the scenario of 2.5 ^◦C to 4.9^◦C temperature rise in India (Khajuria A. and Ravindranath N.H, 2012). Rohitashw k and Gautma H.R in 2014 predicted that with every increase of 1ºC in temperature wheat yields will reduce by 5-10% in South Asia by 2050. In India most of the studies exhibited that climate change has decreased the yield of most of food grain crop in different regions which ultimately leads to decrease in the availability of foods in the country.

 

5.2. Climate Change and Accessibility of Food:

Food accessibility is ensured when all individual households have sufficient means to obtain food in adequate quantity, quality and diversity for a nutritious diet. This depends mainly on the amount of household resources and on prices. Climate change could increase the prices of major crops in developing countries like India.

 

For the most vulnerable people, lower agricultural output means lower incomes. Under these conditions, the most vulnerable people who already spend most of their income on food sacrifice additional income and other assets to meet their nutritional requirements, or resort to poor coping strategies. There are few models which assess the impact of climate change on access to food. Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC projected, depending on the climate change scenario, 200 to 600 million more people globally could suffer from hunger by 2080 (Yohe et al., 2007). (Lloyd et al., 2011) also make the projection that climate change will have important effects on future under nutrition, even when the beneficial effects of economic growth are taken into account. According to their model predictions, there will be a 62 percent increase in severe stunting in South Asia and a 55 percent increase in east and south sub-Saharan Africa by 2050.

 

In tropical regions where high food insecurity and disparity increased, frequency of droughts and floods will affect children more, given their vulnerability. (Vedeld et al., 2014) conducted a study of nine drought-prone villages of Maharashtra and found that crop yields and annual incomes of farmers of that area has dropped by approximately 60 percent in the drought of 2012-13. Such a heavy decline in income is likely to have an enormous impact on child nutrition because poor households typically spend the major share of their earnings on food. However, the effect of climate change on food access is not limited to rural areas.

 

Table-1 Urban Child Nutritional Status in India (2014-15)

Source: Compiled from National Family Health Survey (NHFS) – 4 Database

Urban food insecurity is also a matter of concern because poor and most vulnerable households from rural and coastal regions typically migrate to urban areas for livelihood. (Ramachandran, N 2014) noticed that hunger generally brings about a wave of migration towards cities, displacing entire families to urban slums. Mostly these migrants join poorly paid workers in the unorganised urban sector, where there is no job security and wages fall below the minimum legal level. Urban food insecurity indicators show an alarming figure in India. Over 30 percent of children below five years are underweight in urban Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. The proportion of urban children who are stunted and wasted is high even in Karnataka, Haryana and Maharashtra which are relatively prosperous states (Table-1).

 

5.3. Climate Change and Utilization of Food:

Food utilization is decided by food quality and safety, how much a person consumes and how well a person converts food to energy. Sufficient food utilization needs a diet providing enough energy and important nutrients, adequate sanitation, potable water and proper feeding practices and illness management. Undernutrition is the consequence of insufficient dietary consumption and disease, which in turn results from household food insecurity, an unhealthy atmosphere, lack of health services and inadequate care. Given underlying causes of under nutrition are determined by economic, socio-political as well as environmental factors, with poverty having a central role. Climate change can aggravate under nutrition.

 

Experts claim that climate change is the major global health threat of the 21st century, and is already contributing to the international burden of disease and premature death (Costello et al., 2009). Climate change will have an effect on water quality, water availability as well as sanitation systems by variations in precipitation patterns and the availability and seasonality of glacial melt water. Beside this, climate change might effect on different diseases including, respiratory illness, diarrhoea as well as vector-borne waterborne and foodborne diseases through changes in habitat suitability (Confalonieri et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007). Climate change could also have an impact on food security by affecting calorie intake: recent empirical evidence suggests that climate-related shocks (particularly droughts) impact dietary diversity and reduce overall food consumption with long-term detrimental effects on stunting (Silventoinen, 2003; Gitau et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007).

 

6. CONCLUSION:

Climate change is not a new phenomenon in the world. It is a matter of serious concern for both developed and developing nations because it has the capability to make life vulnerable on earth. Whereas food security is the consequence of the food production process and climate change will effect it adversely by effecting all dimensions of food security, especially food availability. It has the potential to damage irreversibly the natural resources on which agriculture primarily depends. Improper use of nutrients, wastage of water, continued high demographic pressure, changes in pest/disease patterns, loss of soil organic matter, soil erosion, degradation, etc. would further worsen the condition. In the likely event of greater adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture in developing countries like India, where most of the farmers are small and marginal, mitigation and adaptation strategies would demand far greater research and development effort, as well as financial, institutional and policy support.

 

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Received on 22.08.2019         Modified on 16.10.2019

Accepted on 02.01.2020      ©AandV Publications All right reserved